Green Bay Packers Notebook: Tough Road Lies Ahead, Aaron Rodgers Isn't Clutch?

Kevin C. Cox/Getty ImagesThe Green Bay Packers loss to the Atlanta Falcons Sunday was far from a season-ender, but it most likely knocked the Packers out of the running for home field advantage and made the road to even make the playoffs a bit more iffy then a week ago. The Falcons now own the best record in the NFC at 9-2, and the Chicago Bears beat the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday to improve to 8-3—a full game and a half above the Packers (7-4) atop the NFC North. That presents the Packers some problems as they face Steelers 36 Bettis Jersey
their final five games of the 2010 season. First off, the Bears now have to be considered front-runners in the NFC North. No matter what reservations people have about how good Chicago is, their victory Sunday was as impressive as any the Packers have had this season, and their win over Green Bay earlier this season ensures they have the tie-breaker at this point. The Packers and Bears have comparable schedules here on out as well. Green Bay's final five games are as follows: San Francisco (3-7 as of Sunday), at Detroit (2-9), at New England (9-2), New York (7-4), and Chicago (8-3). That equates to a cumulative record of 29-25 for the Packers last five opponents. Chicago faces a similarly tough schedule. They start at Detroit next week, and follow that with games against New England, at Minnesota (4-7), New York Jets (9-2), then at Green Bay. Overall, the Bears final five opponents are 31-23. How Will the Packers Finish the Regular Season?How Will the Packers Finish the Regular Season?Win the NFC North52.9%Wildcard Spot31.1%Miss the Playoffs16.0%Total votes: 238But let's say for a moment that the Packers don't win the NFC North—a very real possibility at this point. Securing a playoff spot via a wildcard slot could prove to be just as difficult, as the NFC has seven playoff quality teams with only six available spots—one of which has to go to NFC West winner where none of the four teams has a winning record. So if Chicago takes the North, that leaves only four remaining playoff spots. The Eagles and Giants will both fight for the NFC East, and with both teams at 7-4, the loser of that race is still in line to take a wildcard spot. The Falcons, Saints (9-3), and Buccaneers (7-4) will fight to be the NFC South champion, but even the two losers of that race are in good position to secure the last wildcard spot. The harsh reality is that if the season ended today, the Packers would be out of the playoffs. Another fact is that the Packers have a tough road ahead if they plan on changing that former reality. Another Aaron Rodgers Comeback Thwarted While the assumption around many Packers' fans is that Aaron Rodgers isn't a "clutch quarterback," that assessment couldn't be farther off the mark. In fact, a much fairer assumption of that argument would be to say that Rodgers is clutch, but also terribly unlucky. For anyone that still doesn't share my opinion, let me show all the examples of what I mean. 2008 Packers-Titans: Rodgers ties the undefeated Titans at 16 in the fourth quarter only to have defense give up a field goal on first possesion of overtime. Packers-Vikings: Vikings go up 28-27 late in the fourth, but Rodgers drives the Packers into field goal range. Mason 4 Brett Favre Purple jersey
Crosby misses a 52-yard field goal. Packers-Panthers: Rodgers drives team to a field goal under two minutes to put Packers up 31-28, only to have the defense give up winning touchdown. Packers-Texans: Rodgers ties the game at 21 with a touchdown pass to Jordy Nelson, but Texans proceed to drive down the field and kick the winning field with no time left. Packers-Jaguars: Packers go up 16-14 on a late field goal in the fourth quarter, but Jags drive for winning touchdown with under two minutes left. Packers-Bears: Rodgers drives the Packers into field goal range with 18 seconds to go in a tied game, but Crosby's kick is blocked. Chicago wins in overtime. 2009 Packers-Steelers: Rodgers leads the Packers back from 10 down, throwing a touchdown pass to James Jones that puts Green Bay up 36-30. Steelers march right down the field and hit the game-winning touchdown with no time left. Rodgers should tune out all the "unclutch" talk.Scott Boehm/Getty ImagesPackers-Cardinals: Again, Rodgers leads the Packers back from a big deficit in his first ever playoff game. This time down 21 points, Rodgers throws his fourth touchdown pass to force overtime. Unfortunately, a scoop and score ends the Packers season in OT, even though a face mask penalty probably should have been called. 2010 Packers-Bears: Rodgers gives the Packers a fourth quarter lead, but a late fumble and defensive penalties help the Bears beat Green Bay on a late field goal. Packers-Redskins: Washington ties the score at 13 late in the fourth, but Rodgers leads Green Bay into field goal range. Crosby's 53-yard try clanked off the upright, however, and the 'Skins kicked a field goal in OT. Packers-Dolphins: Rodgers ties the game at 20 late in the fourth, but a three-and-out leads to the Dolphins kicking the game winning field goal in overtime. Packers-Falcons: A late touchdown pass from Rodgers ties the game at 17, but two special teams blunders lead to the Falcons kicking the game winner before the game hits OT. Sorry, that got redundant in a hurry. But it's important that Packers fans have a clear understanding that the "not clutch" assumption of Aaron Rodgers is very inaccurate. And truth be told, Rodgers was at fault in some of the games I mentioned. But the fact remains that Rodgers has been very, very unlucky in so many of his comeback attempts. If just a few of these games went Rodgers' and the Packers' way, everyone would have a much different take on the "clutchness" of our quarterback. Offensive Play-Calling Had Some Twists and Turns The Packers offense showed us three wrinkles Sunday that we had previously seen little or not at all this season: a flea flicker, the hurry up offense, and the "Big Five" set. First off, the flea flicker was a great call. On a third and one play, the Packers seemingly ran a pitch out a single back set—a play Green Bay has run a lot this season. Instead of Brandon Jackson stutter-stepping his way to another loss, however, he pitched the ball back to Rodgers and he delivered a strike to Greg Jennings after some nifty work evading the Falcons rush. The 34-yard gain helped set up the Packers' first touchdown of the game. We also got a brief look at the Packers' hurry-up offense as well. Green Bay ran it on two scoring drives, and it seemed like the Packers' offense was in a good rhythm while running it. Swain was solid in the "Big Five" set Sunday.Joe Murphy/Getty ImagesPackers coach Mike McCarthy felt confident using the up-tempo method. "We felt it's a strength of ours," McCarthy told the press. "We spent a ton of time on no-huddle throughout the spring and throughout the summer. We never got to it early in the season because of all the changes in personnel. We feel it's something we do very well." Hopefully the Packers run more of it as the season progresses, but McCarthy and the offense should also consider running the "Big Five" set more too. Green Bay ran the set a total of 14 times Sunday, and it contributed more then a few positive plays for the offense. Fifth receiver Brett Swain caught two passes for 40 yards, and both James Jones and Jordy Nelson were able to catch passes underneath using the formation. Numerous times the Falcons decided to blitz the set, but Rodgers was solid at finding the hot route against the blitz. If Rodgers can keep making good decisions under heat, and the bottom of Steelers 36 Bettis Jersey
the depth chart at receiver continues making plays, it's a formation the Packers should continue to employ in future games. Shields an Adventure as Kick Returner Sam Shields third go-around as a kick returner was an up-and-down type affair Sunday afternoon. The undrafted rookie did have an electric 37-yard return, where he was probably one tackler-missing away from a touchdown, but he erratically pinned the Packers deep in their territory on his three other returns. On two such returns, Shields unwisely took the ball out of the endzone, and the Packers were forced to start their drive inside their own 20-yard line. His final return, after the Falcons went up by a field goal, would have been a good time for his first career touchdown, but it wasn't to be. Either way, Shields showed both his inexperience and his potential Sunday. As Shields gets more and more opportunities—and I think he should—we'll start to see more of the explosiveness we saw on the 37-yarder then the inexperience he showed on his three other returns. Injury Report Four Packers were hurt Sunday: linebacker Brandon Chillar, specialist Spencer Havner, cornerback Pat Lee and running back Dmitri Nance. Both Chillar (shoulder) and Havner (hamstring) reinjured former injuries, and their status should be considered doubtful moving forward. Chillar has had problems with his shoulder all season, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he was placed on injured reserve. Havner re-pulled his hamstring, the same injury that kept him out over a month with the Detroit Lions and ultimately lead to his release. Beating Troy Smith and the 49ers next Sunday is a must for the Packers' playoff chances.Ezra Shaw/Getty ImagesLee appeared to injure his ankle, and Nance suffered a concussion—possibly opening the door for the debut of James Starks, everyone's favorite yet completely unknown Green Bay Packer. Looking Ahead The San Francisco 49ers come to Lambeau Field next Sunday (Dec. 5), and it all of a sudden has turned into a must-win game for the Packers. In fact, for the Packers to have any shot at getting to the playoffs, Green Bay will need to beat both San Francisco and Detroit in their next two Steelers 10 Santonio Holmes jersey
games. That would set up the Packers to most likely be able to afford one loss in their last three games. Because, in my opinion, the Packers have to win four out of their last five to win the division and ensure themselves a spot in the NFC Playoffs. Buckle up Packers fans, these last five games could be a bumpy ride.